Graph representing the migratory flyway of the eastern curlew
Tak‘s paper is out! Don’t miss the bottleneck index that we derived – a handy tool to predict the most important nodes.
Iwamura, T., Possingham, H., Chadès, I., Minton, C., Murray, N., Rogers, D., Treml, E., Fuller, R. (2013) Migratory connectivity magnifies the consequences of habitat loss from sea-level rise for shorebird populations Proc R Soc B 280: 20130325
Sea-level rise (SLR) will greatly alter littoral ecosystems, causing habitat change and loss for coastal species. Habitat loss is widely used as a measurement of the risk of extinction, but because many coastal species are migratory, the impact of habitat loss will depend not only on its extent, but also on where it occurs. Here, we develop a novel graph-theoretic approach to measure the Continue reading
That is now official, I am the new team leader of the conservation decisions team and we will be hiring this year! So stay tuned if you are looking for a wicked postdoc position in adaptive management/computational sustainability!
A small post from Baltimore, I gave my talk this morning and I have been asked for the slides. I had many interesting feedback for this talk. I will try to account for as many as I can. Thanks!
I’m currently involved in 3 projects where data is not available but we still need to provide guidance to managers on what action will be most efficient. In such cases, we have no choice but eliciting information from experts. There are many ways of proceeding, and you can find relevant information on google, but I still find that the details of how exactly doing it isn’t written anywhere. I feel that there is a big part of non-written way of proceeding that would benefit many of us. So if you are an expert in expert elicitation, please write us a guide – e.g. not another review!
For example we had trouble using 4-point estimates* data, and explaining to our experts what the confidence value represented. We did explain it many times, but we still get errors when we analyze the data. I do feel sorry for our experts that constantly have to rethink their values.
Beta distribution corresponding to the 4-point estimates
With internship student Martin Peron, we have developed a program to fit beta distribution to 4-point estimates. We are hoping to submit this program to MATLAB exchange very soon (and GNU Octave). So stay tuned if you are looking for such a program!
* 4 point estimates: best guess, min, max and confidence that the true value of the parameter we are estimating lies in this interval.